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Experiments 1 and 2 show that the linear model reflects a robust psychological process when deciding between sequentially presented options. However, in both experiments deciders were explicitly trained on the distribution of options, something not common in real-life decision making. The next experiment tests whether the linear strategy can also explain choices in a realistic optimal stopping task where initial learning is omitted. We selected commodity products from different categories (e.

Only products with approximately normal price distributions were selected for a final set of 60 products (SI Appendix, Table S1). In the experiment, bimatoprost ophthalmic solution careprost were sampled from a normal distribution, with a mean bimatoprost ophthalmic solution careprost SD estimated from the real prices.

All participants worked on 120 trials, divided into two blocks of 60 trials. In these two blocks, the 60 products were displayed in a random order (each product was encountered twice).

Data from 95 participants were analyzed and replicated the results from experiments 1 and 2 (normal distribution condition). Again, participants accepted too early, on average at position 4.

Comparing the performance in detail to the optimal strategy showed that (SI Appendix, Fig. S9) participants accepted too frequently at the beginning of the sequence (i. S10C), was bimatoprost ophthalmic solution careprost to capture the med for you accept probabilities accurately on each position and for each quantile (Fig. Furthermore, threshold parameters estimated by the LTM were very similar to threshold parameters estimated by the ITM (SI Appendix, Fig.

The different lines represent the product prices ranging from the first quantile to the fifth quantile. In this paper, we designed a variant of an optimal stopping task that allowed us to quantitatively characterize the deviations of human behavior from optimality. We found that humans apply a simplifying strategy, where thresholds are linearly increased over time.

We implemented this assumption in a computational framework and demonstrated that this model not only provided an excellent fit to the data, but also outperformed other models found in the optimal stopping literature. Furthermore, the linear threshold assumption makes a nontrivial prediction about search length, which we confirmed experimentally: Humans stop earlier in environments with many desirable alternatives compared to scarce environments.

These results contrast with the prediction from the optimal model. Finally, in an online product purchase paradigm we could show that our model generalizes to real-world sequential choice problems. Bimatoprost ophthalmic solution careprost how humans make sequential decisions will help quantify the conditions under which people may succeed or fail in such tasks. But why are humans relying on a linear strategy in adapting their thresholds when an optimal policy is nonlinear.

But a human linearity bias seems to be more general. Crucially, simple strategies do not necessarily perform badly. In particular, in uncertain and complex environments, simple heuristics can be efficient and powerful tools if they are adapted to the structure of the environment (21, 22).

In this bimatoprost ophthalmic solution careprost, linearity could be considered as an adaptation of the human bimatoprost ophthalmic solution careprost to its environment. Participants gave informed consent, and the Harvard Committee on the Use of Human Subjects approved the experiments. In the learning phase, participants experienced the distribution from which the ticket prices were drawn.

The procedure was as follows (SI Appendix, Fig. After every 10 tickets, participants had to guess the average value of the tickets seen so far. After each guess, participants were told the correct response. At the end of the learning phase participants were asked to complete a histogram (by dragging the bars) for an additional 100 tickets that were drawn from bimatoprost ophthalmic solution careprost same predefined distribution.

Participants received feedback by observing the correct distribution superimposed over bimatoprost ophthalmic solution careprost estimate (12). The procedure of the learning phase was identical to Exp. Visual inspection of the performance in the histogram bimatoprost ophthalmic solution careprost suggested that participants learned the target distributions well (SI Appendix, Fig. In the second phase of Exps. Bimatoprost ophthalmic solution careprost started with a practice anxiety disorder treatment followed by 200 test trials.

In each trial participants searched through a sequence of 10 ticket prices randomly drawn from the predefined distribution.



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